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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd